By Doug Allen
o build a vintage baseball card set in high grade is a labor of love and one of considerable financial resources. Let’s face it, although it is a formidable task to assemble a NM/MT condition 1952 Topps set, it can and has been done. Check out the set registry, five people have done it already and another half dozen are well on their way with sets rated over 7.0.
When examining the gamut of vintage sets, one could argue that the T205 set is one of the most difficult to complete in high grade. Additionally, reason dictates the terminology used to define “high grade” needs to either significantly be altered or thrown out the window, when considering this issue.
Two recent events prompted me to write this article. First, one month ago a long-time dealer/collector walked into our office and presented us with a fresh collection of T205s, that hadn’t seen the light of day for the past 20 years. We submitted them for PSA grading where 6 cards were encapsulated with the lofty grade of NM-MT PSA 8 and 21 were encapsulated with grades of NM PSA7. We were in shock when we went to the Population ReportSM and found that 8 of the cards were the highest ever graded by PSA, including all but one of the PSA 8s.
This small collection represented 20% of the PSA 7s, and 40% of the PSA 8s graded in the last two years. Second, we were fortunate to be selected to auction the second highest graded set in the set registry. This caused us to pause in order to research and fully comprehend what for this collector was a labor of love that took 12 years to complete. This article focuses on defining high grade for this condition sensitive issue, and understanding the difficulty involved in having to fill out rare variations in a condition sensitive issue.
The best way to define high grade is by paying close attention to what has already been graded. To date, only 154 T205 cards have been graded NM-MT. As a matter of fact, there are over 100 subjects in the set that have never been graded NM-MT. It is my opinion, that T205 collectors can define EX-MT PSA 6 as being high grade. To date, only two sets on the set registry have a composite grade of PSA 6 or better, past this there isn’t another set that is even close. In addition, to date, PSA has graded less than 1,900 T205s as PSA 6 or better.
Just to put this in perspective, even with even distribution, this is barely enough to assemble 8 complete sets. Based on the true distribution, only a handful of sets of this caliber could be built, as there are a number of cards for which less than 3 examples have been graded EX-MT or better. With many card issues, as the prices escalate, there is an increase in the number of high grade examples that are submitted for grading. This is not the case with high grade T205s. Analysis shows that in the last 18 months, while the total cards graded has increased 80% from approximately 3,500 to just over 6,300, during this same period of time, the total number of cards receiving a grade of PSA6 or above has increased only 20% from 599 to 735.
I know I threw out a lot of numbers and statistics. The bottom line is it appears due to the sensitive nature of this issue, it is possible if not probable, that many of the cards will never be found in NM-MT PSA 8 condition. Sure there will be little finds here and there as well as raw sets that may come out of the woodwork, when old time collectors see what kind of prices are being realized for high grade examples; but it is doubtful the number of high grade will markedly increase. It sure hasn’t for the past few years.
To further complicate things, in addition to being condition sensitive, the T205 set has a disproportionate number of rare cards. There are close to 60 cards representing over 25% of the set that are tagged with some level of rarity. In addition to rare Hall of Famers like Joss, Wallace (No Cap – both variations), Collins (Mouth Open), Evers, Bresnahan (Mouth Open) and Walsh, this also includes the twelve card Minor League subset and close to forty rare commons. For many of these rare variations, less than 20 cards in any condition have been graded by PSA. It is interesting to note when reviewing the Population ReportSM, how the number of low population cards corresponds closely to the list of cards that have been considered rare by collectors for decades.
Given the sensitive nature of the issue, teamed with the rarity of various subjects, the pricing of these cards has changed significantly in the past few years. For instance, due to the difficulty of obtaining high grade examples, the PSA7 and PSA 8 examples sell for a significant multiple of the PSA 5 price, as compared to other vintage issues. For example, PSA 8 graded T206 commons sell for between six and seven times what PSA 5 examples sell for, while PSA 8 T205 commons sell for over ten times what PSA 5 examples sell for. A couple years ago, we sold a T205 of Cy Young graded PSA 8. This card sold for over $28,000 which at the time was 25 times more than the PSA 5 value. This differential will continue to escalate as collectors further understand the condition rarity of the issue.
In closing, the T205 is really a special vintage issue that carries with it the intrigue of condition sensitivity and rarity that will challenge any collector who chooses to put together a high grade set. For those of you who are used to searching the world over for PSA 8 or better cards for your vintage sets, you better set your sites a little lower because regardless of how much time or money you have, it simply can’t be done. A PSA 6 set is still a lofty albeit an attainable goal.
Current Finest 1911 T205 Gold Border:
The Smith T205 Gold Border Collection
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